There’s a dangerous myth lurking in the world of decision-making: “If it worked before, it’ll work again.”
Sounds logical, right?
If a strategy, method, or decision led to success in the past, then repeating it should guarantee success in the future.
Except—it doesn’t. And history is filled with spectacular examples of people and businesses getting wrecked because they assumed otherwise.
The truth is, decisions don’t exist in a vacuum. The variables around them change, evolve, or sometimes completely flip the script. What made you a genius last year might make you outdated today.
So, why does past success fail to guarantee future success?
Let’s break it down.
1. The World Changes, But Your Strategy Doesn’t
Imagine you’re a warrior in 15th-century Japan, and you’ve mastered the art of the samurai sword. Life is good. You win battles. Your enemies fear you.
Now, fast forward to World War II—you’re still bringing a sword to battle.
How do you think that ends?
That’s exactly what happens in business, careers, and even personal life. Technology shifts, markets evolve, people’s preferences change—but if your decision-making remains frozen in the past, you’re essentially swinging a sword in an era of tanks.
Real-Life Example: Blockbuster vs. Netflix
- Blockbuster dominated the movie rental business. They had a proven business model, and they stuck to it.
- Meanwhile, Netflix adapted—first by mailing DVDs, then by predicting the future with streaming.
- Blockbuster assumed what worked before would keep working. They were wrong.
Moral of the story? The world doesn’t care if your strategy worked before—if it’s outdated, it’s obsolete.
2. The Variables That Made It Work Might Not Exist Anymore
In every successful decision, there are hidden variables that made it work.
Maybe you launched a business, and it thrived. But was it your genius—or was the market just booming at the time?
Example: The “Easy Money” Era
- In 2020–2021, investing felt like a cheat code. Stocks, crypto, startups—everything was going up.
- A lot of people thought they were investment geniuses.
- Then the market corrected, and many realized it wasn’t their skill—it was just a unique moment in time.
Decisions are not made in isolation. If the conditions that supported your past success disappear, using the same approach might lead to failure.
3. Luck Was a Bigger Factor Than You Realized
Let’s be honest—sometimes, we succeed not because of our brilliance, but because we got lucky.
- You took a huge business risk, and it paid off.
- You launched a product at the perfect time, purely by chance.
- You made a random stock investment, and it exploded in value.
Now, the problem isn’t getting lucky—the problem is thinking you were skilled when it was really luck.
If you repeat the same decision under different circumstances, you might be in for a harsh reality check.
Example: The “One-Hit Wonder” Trap
- A musician releases a hit song and assumes their formula will keep working.
- They stick to the same sound, but the audience moves on.
- Suddenly, they’re irrelevant.
Past success is only useful if you understand what part of it was skill and what part was luck. Otherwise, you’re just rolling the dice again and hoping for the same outcome.
4. The Competition Has Evolved (And Learned From Your Success)
Let’s say you cracked the code to a winning strategy. It made you successful. But guess what? Your competitors noticed.
In business, in sports, and even in life—when something works, people copy it.
Example: Nokia & BlackBerry
- Nokia and BlackBerry once ruled the mobile phone market.
- They had a winning formula, but they didn’t evolve.
- Apple and Android studied their success, then did it better.
By the time Nokia and BlackBerry realized their past success wouldn’t carry them forward, it was too late.
5. The “Winner’s Bias” Can Lead to Overconfidence
Winning feels great—but it can also make us blind to flaws in our decision-making.
This is called “winner’s bias”—the assumption that if something worked before, we don’t need to question it.
- A CEO makes a risky expansion decision because their past expansions worked.
- A trader keeps doubling down on investments because they made money last time.
- A business owner ignores customer feedback because their previous product sold well.
Overconfidence leads to ignoring warning signs, resisting change, and ultimately—failure.
Final Thought: Past Success is a Lesson, Not a Blueprint
Success is tricky—it teaches you what worked, but not necessarily what will work next.
If you want to stay ahead, you can’t just ask:
“What worked before?”
You need to ask:
“What has changed, and how should I adapt?”
Because the only thing riskier than making a new decision… is repeating an old one without questioning it.
Disclaimer: Don’t Burn Your Playbook—But Update It Regularly
This isn’t saying ignore past success. Lessons from experience are valuable. But don’t assume they apply forever.
The best strategy? Take what worked, analyze why it worked, and update your approach for the present reality.
Because in the end, flexibility beats nostalgia.
